Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Theoretical and Applied Probability

Language: English Studies in English
Kind of studies: full-time studies
University website: www.hw.ac.uk
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. See glossary of probability and statistics. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where, loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).
Probability
It is a truth very certain that, when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to follow what is most probable
René Descartes (1596–1650). quote reported in: S.H. Wearne (1989) Control of Engineering Project. p. 125.
Probability
My thesis, paradoxically, and a little provocatively, but nonetheless genuinely, is simply this :
PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST.
The abandonment of superstitious beliefs about the existence of Phlogiston, the Cosmic Ether, Absolute Space and Time, ... , or Fairies and Witches, was an essential step along the road to scientific thinking. Probability, too, if regarded as something endowed with some kind of objective existence, is no less a misleading misconception, an illusory attempt to exteriorize or materialize our true probabilistic beliefs.
Bruno de Finetti, Theory of Probability (1970), Preface
Probability
They should have known better. The probability of a train derailment was infinitesimal. That meant it was only a matter of time.
N. K. Jemisin, Non-Zero Probabilities - Originally published in "Clarkesworld magazine" Issue 36, September 2009
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