Manchester, United Kingdom

Language: English

University website: www.manchester.ac.uk

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. See glossary of probability and statistics. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where, loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).

They should have known better. The probability of a train derailment was infinitesimal. That meant it was only a matter of time.

N. K. Jemisin, Non-Zero Probabilities - Originally published in "Clarkesworld magazine" Issue 36, September 2009

My thesis, paradoxically, and a little provocatively, but nonetheless genuinely, is simply this :

PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST.

The abandonment of superstitious beliefs about the existence of Phlogiston, the Cosmic Ether, Absolute Space and Time, ... , or Fairies and Witches, was an essential step along the road to scientific thinking. Probability, too, if regarded as something endowed with some kind of objective existence, is no less a misleading misconception, an illusory attempt to exteriorize or materialize our true probabilistic beliefs.

PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST.

The abandonment of superstitious beliefs about the existence of Phlogiston, the Cosmic Ether, Absolute Space and Time, ... , or Fairies and Witches, was an essential step along the road to scientific thinking. Probability, too, if regarded as something endowed with some kind of objective existence, is no less a misleading misconception, an illusory attempt to exteriorize or materialize our true probabilistic beliefs.

Bruno de Finetti, Theory of Probability (1970), Preface

R. A. Fisher, J. Neyman, R. von Mises, W. Feller, and L. J. Savage denied vehemently that probability theory is an extension of logic, and accused Laplace and Jeffreys of committing metaphysical nonsense for thinking that it is.

E. T. Jaynes; G. Larry Bretthorst (10 April 2003). Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge University Press. p. 293. ISBN 978-0-521-59271-0.

An EU project is using satellite data for lake management, and to support other European space endeavours. The project will receive, store and process data from Sentinel-2 and -3, and has devised the algorithms to fully automate the process.